The Composite State of the Economy Index for December 2016 increased by 0.45 percent

The Bank of Israel's Composite State of the Economy Index for December 2016 increased by 0.45 percent, slightly higher than the monthly rate of increase in recent years. The Composite Index was positively affected this month by a particularly sharp increase in the import of consumer goods, due to an exceptional increase in vehicle purchases, which were brought forward due to the change in green taxation rules that came into effect in January. Other than that, increases in the Industrial Production Index and in the trade and services revenue indices for November also contributed to the increase in the Composite Index. In contrast, the import of manufacturing inputs continued to decline.

 

Index readings for previous months were revised slightly upward due to an upward revision of business output estimates for previous quarters, and due to the more positive than expected figure for services exports in October (Table 1). Table 2 presents the development of components of the Index in the past few months.

 

Summing up 2016, the Composite Index increased by 3.7 percent, similar to the previous estimate of GDP growth by the Central Bureau of Statistics.  The import of consumer goods, trade and services revenue, and services exports were the components with the largest contribution to the increase of the Composite Index this year.  In contrast, Industrial Production and goods exports declined, moderating the pace of increase in the Composite Index.  The increase in the index remained stable during the year.

 

 

Table 1: Revisions in the Composite Index

Revision

Previous data

New data

December

 

0.45

November

0.34

0.36

October

0.19

0.30

September

0.27

0.30

 

 

Table 2: Changes in the Index components in recent months

(monthly percent change, unless otherwise noted)

 

December 2016

November 2016

October 2016

September 2016

Industrial Production Index (excluding mining and quarrying)

 

3.3

-1.6 

 -2.4

Services Revenue Index (excluding education, and public administration)

 

1.3

 -0.8

1.7 

Retail Trade Revenue Index

 

4.6

 -1.8

 1.3

Imports of consumer goods1

27.1

-3.6

2.2

9.8

Imports of manufacturing inputs (excluding fuels)1

-1.8

0.1

-1.4

-1.2

Goods exports (excluding agriculture) 1

0.0

9.6

-0.5

1.3

Services exports (excluding transportation) 1

 

 

2.7

 0.5

Number of employee posts in the private sector

 

 

 0.0

0.4 

Rate of vacant employee posts out of total number of employed people in the business sector2

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.6

Building starts3

 

 

 

-1.1

1 Foreign trade indices are quantitative (in contrast to CBS monthly foreign trade indices).

2 The job vacancy rate is included in the Index at its level, seasonally adjusted and smoothed.

3 Since the Central Bureau of Statistics stopped publishing monthly figures on building starts, beginning in July 2016 the method of calculation of the building starts component of the Index was changed. The component is calculated at a quarterly frequency, and the change (seasonally adjusted, in percent) is attributed to the last month of the quarter for which the figure is published. 

 

For additional data and explanations please click here.

http://www.boi.org.il/en/Research/Pages/ind.aspx

 

 

 

 

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