The Expected Rate of Inflation and Changes in the (M1) Money Supply

16.1.2006
 
The Expected Rate of Inflation and Changes in the (M1) Money Supply
 
  Expected inflation rate (percent) M1 money supply
  Calculated from capital market Average of the professional forecasters' inflation forecastsc 12 months forward Average monthly balance (NIS billion) Rate of change (percent)
  for first year a For second yearb For third year and after Monthly Previous 12 monthsd
December 2001 0.6 1.3 2.5 1.6 29.2 4.1 15.3
December 2002 2.2 3.8 5.4 2.0 30.6 2.7 4.9
December 2003 0.7 2.6 2.8 1.6 33.0 1.7 7.7
2004
January 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 34.3 4.0 10.4
February 1.1 2.5 3.5 1.7 34.8 1.5 11.7
March 1.2 2.8 3.4 1.7 35.6 2.3 14.1
April 1.6 3.0 3.6 2.1 36.9 3.5 18.5
May 2.0 3.1 3.7 2.6 36.8 0.3- 16.9
June 1.8 2.6 3.7 2.3 36.9 0.5 21.0
July 1.5 2.2 3.8 2.0 38.0 2.8 22.2
August 1.9 2.6 3.9 2.4 38.5 1.5 20.5
September 2.0 2.3 3.7 2.5 39.6 2.7 22.8
October 2.0 2.5 3.6 2.4 39.2 1.0- 21.3
November 1.9 2.0 3.4 2.2 38.4 1.9- 18.5
December 1.4 1.9 3.5 2.0 38.9 1.3 18.0
2005
January 1.6 2.0 3.3 2.0 39.8 2.4 16.1
February 2.0 2.4 3.1 2.2 40.4 1.5 16.1
March 2.2 2.4 3.1 2.1 41.0 1.3 15.0
April 2.0 2.0 3.1 2.1 42.6 3.9 15.4
May 1.7 1.9 3.0 2.2 42.1 -1.1 14.5
June 1.9 2.2 2.9 2.0 43.1 2.3 16.6
July 2.1 2.3 2.9 2.3 44.5 3.2 17.1
August 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.1 44.9 1.1 16.6
September 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.0 45.5 1.2 15.0
October 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.2 47.3 4.0 20.7
November 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.2 46.6 -1.4 21.4
Decembere 1.7 2.1 2.6 1.9 48.1 3.0 23.6
Last 30 daysf 1.7 2.0 2.6 1.7      
 
a Twelve months inflation expectations. Calculated on the basis of gross yields. The theoretical basis for the calculation is explained in the Inflation Report for July-December 1999. From January 2004 the method of calculating inflation expectations takes into account the seasonality in the CPI, the rise in prices that has occurred but not yet been published and the continuity of the calculation. A detailed explanation of this method is due to appear in the Discussion Paper Series of the Monetary Department.
b Based on the return on Shahar bonds, or on Galil bonds for equivalent periods.
c Average of the inflation forecasts of the banks and economic consultants that publish their forecasts on a regular basis.
d The percentage change in the level in the current month compared with the level in the equivalent month in the previous year.
e Money supply data are preliminary.
f Average inflation expectations over the last 30 days.