The Expected Rate of Inflation and Changes in the (M1) Money Supply

18.2.2007
 
The Expected Rate of Inflation and Changes in the (M1) Money Supply
 
  Expected inflation rate (percent) M1 money supply
Calculated from capital market Average of the inflation forecastsc 12 months forward Average monthly balance (NIS billion) Rate of change (percent)
for first year a For second yearb For third year and after Monthly Previous 12 monthsd
December 2002 2.2 3.8 5.4 2.0 30.6 2.7 4.9
December 2003 0.7 2.6 2.8 1.6 33.0 1.7 7.7
December 2004 1.4 1.9 3.5 2.0 38.9 1.3 18.0
2005
January 1.6 2.0 3.3 2.0 39.8 2.4 16.1
February 2.0 2.4 3.1 2.2 40.4 1.5 16.1
March 2.2 2.4 3.1 2.1 41.0 1.3 15.0
April 2.0 2.0 3.1 2.1 42.6 3.9 15.4
May 1.7 1.9 3.0 2.2 42.1 -1.1 14.5
June 1.9 2.2 2.9 2.0 43.1 2.3 16.6
July 2.1 2.3 2.9 2.3 44.5 3.2 17.1
August 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.1 44.9 1.1 16.6
September 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.0 45.5 1.2 15.0
October 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.2 47.3 4.0 20.7
November 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.2 46.8 -1.1 21.8
December 1.7 2.1 2.6 1.9 48.2 3.0 23.9
2006
January 1.9 2.2 2.7 1.7 48.5 .8 21.9
February 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.1 48.5 0.1- 20
March 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.2 48.9 .7 19.3
April 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.2 49.7 1.8 16.8
May 2 2.1 2.7 1.9 49 1.5- 16.3
June 1.8 2.1 2.6 1.8 49.6 1.3 15.1
July 1.8 2 2.7 2 50.7 2.3 14.1
August 1.9 2 2.6 2.1 50.7 0 12.9
September 1.9 2 2.5 2 50.7 0.1- 11.5
October 1.4 1.5 2.5 1.4 49.7 2- 5.1
November 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.7 49.8 .3 6.6
Decembere 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.7 51.8 3.9 7.5
2007              
Januarye 1.1 1.3 2.3 1.7 51.9 .3 7
Last 30 daysf 1.3 1.5 2.2 1.8      
 
a Expectations for the next twelve months. For an explanation of the calculation see Appendix 1 in Inflation Report No. 5, July–December 1999. Since January 2004 inflation expectations are derived from the zero-coupon interest rate curve based on market prices of CPI-indexed bonds, on a forward interest rate basis. (For further details see Wiener, Zvi and Pompushko, Helena "The Estimation of Nominal and Real Yield Curves from Government Bonds in Israel" Bank of Israel Discussion Paper, June 2006).
b Forecast for the break-even inflation includes a risk premium component.
c Simple arithmetic mean of the inflation forecasts of the commercial banks and economic consultancy companies that publish their forecasts on a regular basis.
d The percentage change in the level in the current month compared with the level in the equivalent month in the previous year.
e Money supply data are preliminary data.
f Average inflation expectations over previous thirty days.