The Expected Rate of Inflation and Changes in the (M1) Money Supply

16.10.2007
 
The Expected Rate of Inflation and Changes in the (M1) Money Supply
 
 
  Expected inflation rate (percent) M1 money supply
Calculated from capital marketa Average of the inflation forecastsb 12 months forward Average monthly balance (NIS billion) Rate of change (percent)
For first year For second year For third year and after Monthly Previous 12 monthsc
December 2002 2.2 3.8 5.4 2.0 30.6 2.7 4.9
December 2003 0.7 2.6 2.8 1.6 33.0 1.7 7.7
December 2004 1.4 1.9 3.5 2.0 38.9 1.3 18.0
2005
January 1.6 2.0 3.3 2.0 39.8 2.4 16.1
February 2.0 2.4 3.1 2.2 40.4 1.5 16.1
March 2.2 2.4 3.1 2.1 40.9 1.3 15.0
April 2.0 2.0 3.1 2.1 42.6 3.9 15.4
May 1.7 1.9 3.0 2.2 42.1 -1.1 14.5
June 1.9 2.2 2.9 2.0 43.1 2.3 16.6
July 2.1 2.3 2.9 2.3 44.5 3.2 17.1
August 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.1 44.9 1.1 16.6
September 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.0 45.5 1.2 15.0
October 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.2 47.3 4.0 20.7
November 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.2 46.8 -1.1 21.8
December 1.7 2.1 2.6 1.9 48.2 3.0 23.8
2006
January 1.9 2.2 2.7 1.7 48.5 0.8 21.9
February 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.1 48.5 -0.1 20.0
March 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.2 48.9 0.7 19.3
April 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.2 49.7 1.8 16.8
May 2.0 2.1 2.7 1.9 49.0 -1.5 16.3
June 1.8 2.1 2.6 1.8 49.6 1.3 15.1
July 1.8 2.0 2.7 2.0 50.7 2.3 14.1
August 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.1 50.7 0.0 12.9
September 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.0 50.7 -0.1 11.5
October 1.4 1.5 2.5 1.4 49.7 -2.0 5.1
November 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.7 49.8 0.3 6.6
December 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.7 52.1 4.5 8.2
2007
January 1.1 1.3 2.3 1.7 51.8 -0.6 6.8
February 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.9 52.9 2.0 9.0
March 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.0 54.4 2.9 11.3
April 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.7 55.1 1.3 10.8
May 0.7 1.3 2.2 1.2 55.2 0.1 12.7
June 1.8 2.2 2.4 1.8 57.4 4.0 15.7
July 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.7 59.2 3.2 16.7
Augustd 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 61.8 4.3 21.8
Septemberd 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.7 61.1 -1.1 20.5
Last 30 dayse 1.2 1.6 2.5 1.5      
 
a Inflation expectations are defined as break-even inflation and they include a risk-premium component. An explanation for how the expectations are calculated is available at the following address: http://bankisrael.gov.il/deptdata/monetar/m1_exp_e.pdf
b Simple arithmetic mean of the inflation forecasts of the commercial banks and economic consultancy companies that publish their forecasts on a regular basis.
c The percentage change in the level in the current month compared with the level in the equivalent month in the previous year.
d Money supply data are preliminary data.
e Average inflation expectations over previous thirty days