Expected Rate of Inflation Derived from the Capital Market, Forecasters' Inflation Expectations, and the M1 Money Supply

16.6.2009
 
Expected Rate of Inflation Derived from the Capital Market, Forecasters' Inflation Expectations, and the M1 Money Supply
 
 
  Expected inflation rate (percent) M1 money supply
Calculated from capital marketa Average of the inflation forecastsb 12 months forward Average monthly balance (NIS billion) Rate of change (percent)
For first year For second year For third year and after Monthly Previous 12 monthsc
December 2002 2.2 3.8 5.4 2.6 30.6 2.7 4.9
December 2003 0.7 2.6 2.8 2.0 33.0 1.7 7.7
December 2004 1.4 1.9 3.5 2.1 38.9 1.3 18.0
December 2005 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.1 48.2 3.0 23.8
December 2006 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.9 52.1 4.6 8.3
December 2007 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.0 61.2 2.0 17.4
December 2008 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 71.9 3.9 17.4
               
2008              
January 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.6 60.4 -1.4 16.5
February 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 60.5 0.2 14.4
March 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 61.3 1.3 12.7
April 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.8 63.8 4.2 15.9
May 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.2 63.3 -0.8 14.8
June 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 64.1 1.3 11.7
July 3.2 3.0 2.8 3.2 66.6 3.8 12.2
August 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.0 67.2 0.9 9.4
September 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8 68.3 1.7 11.8
October 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.0 70.4 3.1 17.5
November -0.1 1.0 2.8 1.3 69.2 -1.8 15.3
December -0.7 0.2 2.5 0.4 71.9 3.9 17.4
2009              
January 0.6 1.2 2.4 0.3 74.5 3.6 23.4
February 0.8 1.8 2.3 0.5 80.3 7.8 32.8
March 0.7 1.7 2.4 0.6 86.3 7.5 40.9
Aprild 0.9 1.9 2.5 1.1 95.4 10.5 49.4
Mayd 1.9 3.0 2.4 1.8 97.8 2.6 54.5
30 Last dayse 1.9 3.1 2.5 2.2      
 
a Inflation expectations are defined as break-even inflation and they include a risk-premium component. An explanation for how the expectations are calculated is available at the following address: http://bankisrael.gov.il/deptdata/monetar/m1_exp_e.pdf
b Simple arithmetic mean of the inflation forecasts of the commercial banks and economic consultancy companies that publish their forecasts on a regular basis.
c The percentage change in the level in the current month compared with the level in the equivalent month in the previous year.
d Money supply data are preliminary data.
e Average inflation expectations over previous thirty days