Expected Rate of Inflation and the Money Supply

 

  Expected inflation rate (percent) M1 money supply
Calculated from capital marketa Average   inflation forecastsb 12 months forward Average monthly balance (NIS billion)
Rate of change (percent)
For first year   For second year For third year and after
Monthly
Previous 12 monthsc
Annual data: d              
2002 2.2 3.8 5.4 2.6 30.6 2.7 4.9
2003 0.7 2.6 2.8 2.0 33.0 1.7 7.7
2004 1.4 1.9 3.5 2.1 38.9 1.3 18.0
2005 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.1 48.2 3.0 23.8
2006 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.9 52.1 4.6 8.3
2007 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.0 61.2 2.0 17.4
2008 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 71.9 3.9 17.4
2009 1.8 2.6 2.5 1.8 109.6 -0.5 52.1
2010 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 114.7 2.8 4.6
2011 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 116.5 2.2 1.6
               
Monthly data: e              
2011              
January 3.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 116.8 1.8 8.6
February 3.8 3.1 2.7 3.1 114.2 -2.2 8.1
March 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.1 113.2 -0.9 4.9
April 3.1 3.0 2.5 3.1 115.6 2.1 4.8
May 3.2 2.9 2.5 3.1 115.8 0.2 3.9
June 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.0 118.9 2.6 7.6
July 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.9 114.2 -3.9 0.7
August 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 117.2 2.6 4.2
September 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.4 114.7 -2.2 0.6
October 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.2 114.1 -0.5 0.8
November 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.2 114.1 -0.1 2.3
December 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.3 116.5 2.2 1.6
2012              
January 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 114.6 -1.7 -1.9
February 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 114.2 -0.3 0.0
March 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 113.9 -0.3 0.6
April 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 120.7 6.0 4.5
May 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 119.2 -1.3 3.0
June 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 121.0 1.5 1.8
Julyf 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 122.0 0.9 6.9
Augustf 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 124.6 2.1 6.3
Septemberf 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 128.2 2.9 11.8
 current figureg 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.0      

 

 

a.     Inflation expectations are defined as the rate of inflation that would make the yields on indexed and unindexed government bonds equal (break-even inflation); they include an inflation-risk premium. For explanation for how the expectations are calculated
b.     Simple arithmetic mean of the inflation forecasts of the commercial banks and economic consultancy companies that publish their forecasts on a regular basis.

 

c.      The percentage change in the level in the current month compared with the level in the equivalent month in the previous year.
  1. Annual data: expected inflation rate––annual averages; M1 money supply––December averages.
  2. Monthly data: monthly averages.
  3. Money supply data are preliminary data.
  4. Expectations derived from the capital market––average of the CPI month (i.e., from the 16th of the previous month to the 15th of the current month). Forecasts––average of forecasts updated after the publication of the CPI.