|
Date
|
Calculated
from capital market1
|
Average
of the inflation forecasts for the 12 months ahead4
|
One-year
inflation expectations derived from internal interest rates5
|
One-year
expectations derived from inflation contracts7
|
|
For
the first year
|
For
the second year
(forward)
|
For
the third year (forward)
|
For
years 3–5 (forward)2
|
For
five years
|
For
years 5–10 (forward)3
|
|
Annual
data:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010
|
2.6
|
2.8
|
2.9
|
3.0
|
2.9
|
2.5
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
|
|
2011
|
2.5
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
2.9
|
2.8
|
2.4
|
2.8
|
2.7
|
|
|
2012
|
2.1
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
|
2013
|
1.7
|
2.4
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
2.4
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
|
2014
|
1.2
|
1.8
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
2.3
|
1.3
|
1.0
|
1.2
|
|
2015
|
0.6
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
1.3
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
2016
|
0.2
|
0.8
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
|
2017
|
0.2
|
0.7
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
1.0
|
2.1
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
|
2018
|
1.0
|
1.2
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
1.9
|
1.0
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
|
2019
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
|
Monthly
data:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2019
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January
|
1.0
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
|
February
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
|
March
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
|
April
|
1.1
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.8
|
1.3
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
|
May
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
1.3
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
|
June
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.8
|
1.3
|
0.9
|
1.3
|
|
July
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
|
August
|
1.0
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
1.0
|
|
September
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
0.8
|
1.0
|
|
October
|
1.0
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
0.8
|
1.0
|
|
November
|
0.9
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
1.2
|
0.8
|
1.0
|
|
December
|
0.8
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.6
|
1.1
|
0.7
|
0.8
|
|
2020
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
1.1
|
0.7
|
0.8
|
|
February
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
1.0
|
0.7
|
0.8
|
|
March
|
-1.1
|
0.6
|
0.9
|
1.2
|
0.6
|
1.6
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
|
April
|
-0.8
|
0.9
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
0.9
|
1.6
|
0.2
|
0.1-
|
0.1-
|
|
Current
data6
|
-0.6
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
0.9
|
1.6
|
0.6
|
0.2-
|
0.4-
|
1 Inflation
expectations derived from the capital market are defined as the ratio between
the yields on unindexed government bonds and the yields on CPI-indexed
government bonds (breakeven inflation). They include an inflation-risk premium
component and various biases deriving from the differences in taxation and
liquidity between different types of bonds. For an explanation of how the
expectations are calculated click on the following link:
www.boi.org.il/en/DataAndStatistics/Pages/InflationExpectationsExplanation.aspx
Forward
expectations are the expectations for the inflation rate over a future period.
The forward rates—exp(j,k)—are derived from the breakeven inflation for j years
and k years. That is:
Where exp(j,k) is the forward expectations
for inflation from the end of year j to the end of year k. For example, exp(3,5)
is the expected rate of inflation from the end of the third year to the end of
the fifth year. Exp(k) is the inflation expectation for k years—for example,
for 5 years. All expectations data are presented in annual terms.
2 Forward
expectations for full years, from the end of the third year to the end of the
fifth year.
3 Forward
expectations for full years, from the end of the fifth year to the end of the
tenth year.
4 The simple arithmetic mean of the inflation forecasts of
commercial banks and economic consulting companies that provide their forecasts
to the Bank of Israel on a regular basis.
5 Expectations
derived from the internal interest rates of the five large banks, calculated as
the ratio between unindexed interest rates and CPI-indexed interest rates. The
internal interest rate is calculated for each bank as the average of its
marginal price for raising funds (deposits) and its marginal price for
allocating uses (credit).
6 For expectations
derived from the capital market and expectations based on internal interest
rates—average for the CPI month (from the previous CPI reading through the most
recent figure prior to the publication of the current CPI); forecasts—the
average of forecasts which were revised after the CPI was published.
7 One-year
expectations derived from inflation contracts—based on the average of market
quotes.