Expected Rate of Inflation and the Money Supply

To this press release as a Word file

 

  Expected inflation rate (percent) M1 money supply
Calculated from capital marketa Average   inflation forecastsb 12 months forward Average monthly balance (NIS billion)
Rate of change (percent)
For first year   For second year For third year and after
Monthly
Previous 12 monthsc
Annual data: d              
2002 2.2 3.8 5.4 2.6 30.6 2.7 4.9
2003 0.7 2.6 2.8 2.0 33.0 1.7 7.7
2004 1.4 1.9 3.5 2.1 38.9 1.3 18.0
2005 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.1 48.2 3.0 23.8
2006 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.9 52.1 4.6 8.3
2007 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.0 61.2 2.0 17.4
2008 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 71.9 3.9 17.4
2009 1.8 2.6 2.5 1.8 109.6 -0.5 52.1
2010 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 114.7 2.8 4.6
2011 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 116.5 2.2 1.6
               
Monthly data: e              
2011              
January 3.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 116.8 1.8 8.6
February 3.8 3.1 2.7 3.1 114.2 -2.2 8.1
March 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.1 113.2 -0.9 4.9
April 3.1 3.0 2.5 3.1 115.6 2.1 4.8
May 3.2 2.9 2.5 3.1 115.8 0.2 3.9
June 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.0 118.9 2.6 7.6
July 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.9 114.2 -3.9 0.7
August 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 117.2 2.6 4.2
September 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.4 114.7 -2.2 0.6
October 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.2 114.1 -0.5 0.8
November 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.2 114.1 -0.1 2.3
December 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.3 116.5 2.2 1.6
2012              
January 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 114.6 -1.7 -1.9
February 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 114.2 -0.3 0.0
March 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 113.9 -0.3 0.6
April 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 120.7 6.0 4.5
May 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 119.2 -1.3 3.0
June 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 121.0 1.5 1.8
July 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 122.0 0.9 6.9
Augustf 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 125.2 2.6 6.8
Septemberf 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 127.3 1.7 11.0
Octoberf 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.2 123.9 -2.7 8.6
 current figureg 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.9      

 

 

a. Inflation expectations are defined as the rate of inflation that would make

    the yields on indexed and unindexed government bonds equal (break-

    ven inflation); they include an inflation-risk premium.For an explanation for

      how the expectations are calculated, click here.

 

b. Simple arithmetic mean of the inflation forecasts of the commercial banks

     and economic consultancy companies that publish their forecasts on a

     regular basis.

 

c. The percentage change in the level in the current month compared with

     the level in the equivalent month in the previous year.

 

d. Annual data: expected inflation rate––annual averages; M1 money supply

    –December averages.

 

e. Monthly data: monthly averages.

 

f. Money supply data are preliminary data.

 

g. Expectations derived from the capital market––average of the CPI month

    (i.e., from the 16th of the previous month to the 15th of the current

     month). Forecasts––average of forecasts updated after the publication

     of the CPI.