Expected Rate of Inflation Derived from the Capital Market, Forecasters' Inflation Expectations, and the M1 Money Supply

This press release as a Word file

 

 

 
 
Expected inflation rate (percent)
M1 money supply
Calculated from capital marketa
Average   inflation forecastsb 12 months forward
Average monthly balance (NIS billion)
Rate of change (percent)
For first year  
For second year
For third year and after
 

Monthly
Previous 12 monthsc
Annual datad:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002
2.2
3.8
5.4
2.6
30.6
2.7
4.9
2003
0.7
2.6
2.8
2.0
33.0
1.7
7.7
2004
1.4
1.9
3.5
2.1
38.9
1.3
18.0
2005
1.7
2.1
2.6
2.1
48.2
3.0
23.8
2006
1.2
1.6
2.1
1.9
52.1
4.6
8.3
2007
1.4
1.9
2.3
2.0
61.2
2.0
17.4
2008
1.9
2.2
2.7
2.5
71.9
3.9
17.4
2009
1.8
2.6
2.5
1.8
109.6
-0.5
52.1
2010
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
114.7
2.8
4.6
2011
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
116.5
2.2
1.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Monthly datae:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2011
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
January
3.3
3.0
2.7
3.0
116.8
1.8
8.6
February
3.8
3.1
2.7
3.1
114.2
2.2-
8.1
March
3.7
3.2
2.7
3.1
113.2
0.9-
4.9
April
3.1
3.0
2.5
3.1
115.6
2.1
4.8
May
3.2
2.9
2.5
3.1
115.8
0.2
3.9
June
2.9
2.9
2.6
3.0
118.9
2.6
7.6
July
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.9
114.2
3.9-
0.7
August
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
117.2
2.6
4.2
September
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.4
114.7
2.2-
0.6
October f
1.7
2.2
2.6
2.2
114.1
0.5-
0.8
November
1.8
2.3
2.5
2.2
114.1
0.1-
2.3
December
1.9
2.4
2.5
2.3
116.5
2.2
1.6
2012
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
January
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.2
114.6
-1.7
-1.9
February
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.3
114.2
-0.3
0.0
March
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.5
113.9
-0.3
0.6
April
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.6
120.7
6.0
4.5
May f
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.4
119.2
-1.3
3.0
June f
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.1
121.0
1.5
1.8
July f
2.0
2.5
2.3
1.9
121.4
0.3
6.3
current figure g
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.6
 
 
 

 

 

a)    Inflation expectations are defined as the rate of inflation that would make the yields on indexed and unindexed government bonds equal (break-even inflation); they include an inflation-risk premium. For explanations on how the expectations are calculated.
b)    Simple arithmetic mean of the inflation forecasts of the commercial banks and economic consultancy companies that publish their forecasts on a regular basis.
c)    The percentage change in the level in the current month compared with the level in the equivalent month in the previous year.
d)    Annual data: expected inflation rate––annual averages; M1 money supply––December averages.
e)    Monthly data: monthly averages.
f)     Money supply data are preliminary data.

 

g)    Expectations derived from the capital market––average of the CPI month (i.e., from the 16th of the previous month to the 15th of the current month). Forecasts––average of forecasts updated after the publication of the CPI.