The Composite State of the Economy Index for February 2022 declined by 0.08 percent

The Bank of Israel's Composite State of the Economy Index declined slightly by 0.08 percent in February, further to the effects of the fifth (Omicron) wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in December 2021 and January 2022. These changes differ markedly from the increases recorded in October and November 2021, prior to the start of the fifth wave.

 

The Index was positively affected by increases in the Industrial Production Index (January), the retail trade revenue index (January), services exports (December), employee posts (December), and building starts (December). The job vacancy rate in February remained at a record high that reflects employers’ continued desire to expand their operations following the reopening of the economy. In contrast, the import of consumer goods (February), the import of production inputs (February), and goods exports (February), declined and had a negative effect on the Index.

 

Table 1 presents the revisions to the Composite Index.  Table 2 presents the development of components of the Index in the past few months.

 

In view of the uniqueness of the crisis and the resulting measurement difficulties, the changes in the Index should not be used as an indicator of the precise intensity of changes in economic activity.

 

 

Table 1: Revisions in the Composite Index

Revision

Previous figure

New figure

February

 

-0.08

January

0.12

0.06

December

-0.1

-0.09

November

0.46

0.40

October

0.61

0.51

September

0.17

0.17

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2: Changes in the Index components in recent months

(monthly percent change, unless otherwise noted)

 

Febuary

January

December

November

Industrial Production Index

(excluding mining and quarrying)

 

0.7

5.9

-3.8

Services Revenue Index

(excluding education and public administration)

 

0.0

-6.7

4.4

Retail Trade Revenue Index

 

0.8

-0.5

-1.1

Imports of consumer goods1

-2.2

6.8

-2.3

2.1

Imports of manufacturing inputs

(excluding fuels)1

-2.5

6.7

-0.2

0.8

Goods exports (excluding agriculture)1

-2.7

-0.3

-1.4

0.0

Services exports (excluding transportation)2

 

 

0.7

2.1

Number of employee posts in the private sector

 

 

0.9

1.1

Job vacancy rate in the business sector3

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.0

Building starts4

 

 

3.8

 

 

1 Goods imports and exports are calculated in fixed prices (adjusted for changes in foreign trade price indices).

2 Services exports are calculated in real terms using the Consumer Price Index, and are comprised of the export of other business services and the export of tourism services.

3 The job vacancy rate is calculated out of the total number of employed people, and is included in the index at its seasonally adjusted level.

4 Since the Central Bureau of Statistics publishes data on building starts once per quarter, the data integrated into the model are at a monthly frequency based on additional sources, such that the distribution is consistent with the quarterly data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (in percent, seasonally adjusted).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Detailed explanations regarding how the Composite Index is calculated, as well as detailed long-term tables, can be found at

https://www.boi.org.il/en/Research/Pages/ind.aspx

 ​