The Composite State of the Economy Index for June increased by 0.05 percent

 

The Composite State of the Economy Index for June increased slightly, by 0.05 percent, such that there was a moderate increase in activity in the second quarter.

 

The Index was positively affected by increases in most components, including the Industrial Production index (May), the services revenue index (May), the import of manufacturing inputs (June), electricity production (June), and credit card purchases (June). The job vacancy rate for June remained at a high level that reflects the continued desire of employers to expand their operations following the reopening of the economy.  In contrast, the retail trade revenue index (May) and goods exports (June) declined, which had a negative impact on the Index. 

 

Series data on electricity production (adjusted for the effects of weather and seasonality) and credit card purchases (seasonally adjusted) were added to the variables comprising the Index.  These data became available recently due to the development of rapid indicators during the COVID-19 period.  Their contribution to the Index is mainly due to the fact that they complete information, since they are available in real time, compared with most of the data comprising the Index, which are available only with a lag of one or two months.

 

Table 1 presents the revisions to the Index for previous months.  Table 2 presents the development of components of the Index in the past few months.

 

 

Table 1: Revisions in the Composite Index

Revision

Previous figure

New figure

June

 

0.05

May

-0.03

-0.10

April

0.15

0.25

March

0.03

0.03

February

0.16

0.13

January

0.09

0.07

 


Table 2: Changes in the Index components in recent months

(monthly percent change, unless otherwise noted)

 

June

May

April

March

Industrial Production Index

(excluding mining and quarrying)

 

3.4

0.1

-2.8

Services Revenue Index

(excluding education and public administration)

 

2.6

0.0

-0.5

Retail Trade Revenue Index

 

-12.1

0.5

-1.4

Imports of consumer goods1

-0.1

-6.0

14.1

-7.2

Imports of manufacturing inputs

(excluding fuels)1

4.6

1.5

-2.4

1.2

Goods exports (excluding agriculture)1

-3.5

-7.9

12.1

1.7

Services exports (excluding transportation)2

 

 

2.4

2.2

Number of employee posts in the private sector

 

 

0.1

0.2

Job vacancy rate in the business sector3

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.2

Building starts4

 

 

 

8.2

Electricity production5

3.3

0.5

-7.1

2.0

Credit card purchases6

3.5

1.8

0.6

-0.4

 

1 Goods imports and exports are calculated in fixed prices (adjusted for changes in foreign trade price indices).

2 Services exports are calculated in real terms using the Consumer Price Index, and are comprised of the export of other business services and the export of tourism services.

3 The job vacancy rate is calculated out of the total number of employed people, and is included in the index at its seasonally adjusted level.

4 Since the Central Bureau of Statistics publishes data on building starts once per quarter, the data integrated into the model are at a monthly frequency based on additional sources, such that the distribution is consistent with the quarterly data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (in percent, seasonally adjusted).

5 Electricity production is calculated as the rate of change relative to the previous month, adjusted for the effect of the weather and seasonality.

6 The credit card purchases figure is the monthly seasonally adjusted change according to Central Bureau of Statistics publications.  When the CBS figure for a month is not available, the figure listed is the monthly rate of change according to daily data from SHVA, seasonally adjusted.

 

 

 

Detailed explanations regarding how the Composite Index is calculated, as well as detailed long-term tables, can be found at

https://www.boi.org.il/en/Research/Pages/ind.aspx

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