The Composite State of the Economy Index for August 2019 increases by 0.2 percent

The Composite State of the Economy Index for August 2019 increases by 0.2 percent: Activity is expanding at around the long-term rate 
 

The Bank of Israel's Composite State of the Economy Index for August increased by 0.23 percent. The Index’s rate of increase has returned to reflecting growth at the long-term pace, after fluctuations in the first quarter of the year due to vehicle purchases being brought forward to the first quarter at the expense of the second quarter.

 

The Index for August was positively affected by increases in goods exports and in the import of manufacturing inputs in August, and by an increase in the industrial production index in July. In contrast, a decline in imports of consumer goods in August, a decline in the services revenue index in July, and a decline in building starts in the second quarter moderated the Composite Index’s rate of growth. The Index for previous months was revised slightly upward due to revisions in service export data for April and May, and improvement in most recent data that have a positive effect on the long-term growth rate of the index (Table 1). Table 2 presents the development of components of the Index in the past few months.

 

 

Table 1: Revisions in the Composite Index

Revision

Previous data

New data

August

 

0.23

July 2019

0.19

0.23

June 2019

0.19

0.23

May 2019

0.12

0.15

 

 

Table 2: Changes in the Index components in recent months

(monthly percent change, unless otherwise noted)

 

 

August 2019

July 2019

June

2019

May

2019

Industrial Production Index

(excluding mining and quarrying)

 

5.5

 -0.6

-0.9

Services Revenue Index

(excluding education and public administration)

 

-0.6

0.9

0.2

Retail Trade Revenue Index

 

0.2

1.9

-0.4

Imports of consumer goods1

-4.6

-3.5

5.4

-7.9

Imports of manufacturing inputs

(excluding fuels)

1.3

-3.8

2.0

-4.9

Goods exports (excluding agriculture) 1

3.0

0.5

8.7

-3.6

Services exports (excluding transportation) 2

 

 

 1.4

1.8

Number of employee posts in the private sector

 

 

 0.2

0.1

Job vacancy rate in the business sector3

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

Building starts4

 

 

-7.8 

 

 1 Goods imports and exports are calculated in fixed prices (adjusted for changes in foreign trade price indices).

2 Services exports are calculated in real terms (using the Consumer Price Index).

3 The job vacancy rate is calculated out of the total number of employed people and vacancies and is included in the index at its seasonally adjusted level.

4 Since the Central Bureau of Statistics publishes data on building starts once per quarter, the data integrated into the model are at a monthly frequency based on additional sources, such that the distribution is consistent with the quarterly data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (in percent, seasonally adjusted).​

 

For additional data and explanations, please click here.

http://www.boi.org.il/en/Research/Pages/ind.aspx