Research Department Staff Forecast, June 2016

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This document presents the forecast of macroeconomic developments compiled by the Bank of Israel Research Department in June 2016. The forecast was presented to the Monetary Committee on June 26, 2016, during its meeting prior to the decision on the Bank of Israel interest rate for July 2016. According to the staff forecast, gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 2.4 percent in 2016 and by 2.9 percent in 2017. The rate of inflation over the next year (ending in the second quarter of 2017) is expected to be 1.0 percent. The Bank of Israel interest rate is expected to remain at its current level of 0.1 percent during the coming year, and to begin rising at the end of 2017.
The Bank of Israel Research Department compiles a staff forecast of macroeconomic developments on a quarterly basis. The staff forecast is based on several models, various data sources, and assessments based on economists' judgment.[1] The Bank's medium scale DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model developed in the Research Department—a structural model based on microeconomic foundations—plays a primary role in formulating the macroeconomic forecast.[2] The model provides a framework for analyzing the forces which have an effect on the economy, and allows the integration of information from various sources into a macroeconomic forecast for real and nominal variables, with an internally consistent "economic story".