The monthly Index of Economic Activity increased by 0.5 percent in November

The monthly Index of Economic Activity was increased by 0.5 percent in November, following a slight decline in October. The index this month reflects the average monthly growth estimate from September to November

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The monthly Index of Economic Activity[1] was increased by 0.5 percent in November, following a slight decline in October. The index this month reflects the average monthly growth estimate from September to November.  The Index was positively influenced by data on goods exports in September to November, imports of consumption goods and production inputs in November, labor market data regarding the number of workers, wages, and job vacancies in September and October, indirect taxes in October and November, and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange stock index and the Nasdaq index in September to November.  The second estimate of actual GDP in the third quarter, which was published this week, also contributed to the increase in the index.  In contrast, revenue data in the trade and services industries, industrial production data in mixed-high technology and in construction inputs, and gasoline consumption data in September moderated the increase in the index (Tables 1 and 2).

The pace of increase of the index is higher than the long-term growth trend (about 0.3 percent).

The Index for the past two months was revised downward with the completion of data that were previously missing, and also due to the second estimate of actual GDP data for the third quarter, which was revised downward.

Figure 1 presents the Index data over the past two years.  Table 1 presents the contributions of the Index’s components to the overall estimate and revisions to the Index, and Table 2 presents the monthly rate of change in the Index’s components.

 

FIGURE 1: The Monthly Index of Economic Activity

 

* The table presents the contribution of each group of components in the monthly index, such that the monthly estimate constitutes the sum of the contributions of each of the components detailed in the table.  Some of the raw data influence the monthly estimate with a lag or influence the estimates of several months.

 

 

[1] The monthly Index of Economic Activity reflects the three-month average of the estimated monthly growth of GDP.  The estimate is based on a model developed at the Bank of Israel (Ginker and Suhoy, 2021).