The Bank of Israel's Composite State of the Economy Index for October increased by 0.25 percent. The increase reflected the fading of the fourth wave of morbidity that took place between July and September, during which there were very small increases in the Index. This was in contrast with the continuing increases since January 2021 following the opening of the economy after the third lockdown.
The Index was positively affected by increases in the services revenue index (September), services exports (September), and employee posts (August). The job vacancy rate in October also increased and remained at a record high, reflecting the continued desire of employers to expand their operations following the reopening of the economy. In contrast, imports of consumer goods (October), imports of manufacturing inputs (October), and goods exports (October) declined and had a negative impact on the Index. The industrial production index (September) and the retail trade revenue index (September) remained virtually unchanged.
There was a downward revision of Index data for July and August, which was to a great extent due to GDP growth in the third quarter, which was positive but more moderate than initial assessments (Table 1). Table 2 presents the development of components of the Index in the past few months.
Table 1: Revisions in the Composite Index
|
Revision |
Previous figure |
New figure |
|
October |
|
0.25 |
|
September |
0.04 |
0.05 |
|
August |
0.25 |
0.16 |
|
July |
0.21 |
0.10 |
|
June |
0.37 |
0.37 |
|
May |
0.19 |
0.33 |
Table 2: Changes in the Index components in recent months♦
(monthly percent change, unless otherwise noted)
|
|
October 2021 |
September 2021 |
August 2021 |
July 2021 |
|
Industrial Production Index (excluding mining and quarrying) |
|
-0.1 |
-2.8 |
1.6 |
|
Services Revenue Index (excluding education and public administration) |
|
0.8 |
3.0 |
-0.5 |
|
Retail Trade Revenue Index |
|
-0.2 |
3.5 |
-1.9 |
|
Imports of consumer goods1 |
-2.3 |
3.4 |
2.1 |
-1.7 |
|
Imports of manufacturing inputs (excluding fuels)1 |
-1.1 |
3.0 |
6.0 |
0.3 |
|
Goods exports (excluding agriculture)1 |
-0.4 |
-3.0 |
0.1 |
10.1 |
|
Services exports (excluding transportation)2 |
|
0.6 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
|
Number of employee posts in the private sector |
|
|
0.7 |
1.8 |
|
Job vacancy rate in the business sector3 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
|
Building starts4 |
|
|
|
|
1 Goods imports and exports are calculated in fixed prices (adjusted for changes in foreign trade price indices).
2 Services exports are calculated in real terms using the Consumer Price Index, and are comprised of the export of other business services and the export of tourism services.
3 The job vacancy rate is calculated out of the total number of employed people, and is included in the index at its seasonally adjusted level.
4 Since the Central Bureau of Statistics publishes data on building starts once per quarter, the data integrated into the model are at a monthly frequency based on additional sources, such that the distribution is consistent with the quarterly data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (in percent, seasonally adjusted).
Detailed explanations regarding how the Composite Index is calculated, as well as detailed long-term tables, can be found at