The monthly Index of Economic Activity declined by 0.2 percent in March

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The monthly Index of Economic Activity[1] declined by 0.2 percent in March. The index reflects the average monthly growth estimate for the three months from January to March 2026, including the economic implications of Operation Roaring Lion, which began on February 28.  In our assessment, and relying on experience from similar events in the past, the Index this month underestimates the decline due to data that are still lacking for some of the indicators in March.

The Index was negatively influenced by data on credit card purchases in March, retail trade and industrial production of construction inputs in February, goods exports in mixed-high technology industries in February and March, goods exports in manufacturing in February, goods imports in March, and labor market data regarding job vacancies in February and March and the number of actually employed persons in February,

In contrast, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange General Shares Index’s performance in recent months moderated the decline in the Index (Tables 1 and 2).

The pace of increase of the index is below the long-term growth trend (about 0.3 percent).

The Index for recent months was revised downward with the completion of data that were previously missing and with the downward revision in growth data for the fourth quarter of 2025.

Figure 1 presents the Index data over the past two years.  Table 1 presents the contributions of the Index’s components to the overall estimate and revisions to the Index, and Table 2 presents the monthly rate of change in the Index’s components.

 

[1] The monthly Index of Economic Activity reflects the three-month average of the estimated monthly growth of GDP.  The estimate is based on a model developed at the Bank of Israel (Ginker and Suhoy, 2021).

 

 

FIGURE 1: The Monthly Index of Economic Activity

 

 

* The table presents the contribution of each group of components in the monthly index, such that the monthly estimate constitutes the sum of the contributions of each of the components detailed in the table.  Some of the raw data influence the monthly estimate with a lag or influence the estimates of several months.